Accurate soccer predictions? Judge ours by the record
Accurate soccer predictions are easy to claim and hard to prove, so every tip Punts publishes is logged before kick-off, never edited, and graded after the final whistle. This page is that log: the hits, the misses and what R100 a tip would have returned.
2 174 matches since 15 Aug 2025, re-run match by match
Re-run dailyOur goals model was refitted each week on the results before it and rated that week's matches, so no match was ever rated knowing its own result. Each match then gets today's tip rule, graded on the real score. The odds of past matches were not kept, so this shows how often the calls came in; the live log below adds the return at the price we showed.
| Market | Tips | Right | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team to win | 502 | 69.5% | 66.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 401 | 59.9% | 70.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 230 | 63.0% | 69.5% |
| Both teams to score | 187 | 62.0% | 63.2% |
| Not both teams to score | 27 | 51.9% | 70.1% |
| Most likely result at | Matches | Came in | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30-40% | 395 | 37% | 38% |
| 40-50% | 777 | 45% | 45% |
| 50-60% | 517 | 56% | 54% |
| 60-70% | 318 | 69% | 64% |
| 70-80% | 127 | 80% | 74% |
| 80-90% | 40 | 88% | 84% |
What the re-run changed. The model alone ran hot on goals: under 2.5 came in 59.9% against the 70.0% it expected, over 2.5 63.0% against 69.5%, and not both teams to score 51.9% against 70.1%. So since 9 November the live tips use goals markets only where the bookmakers' own over/under line sets the goals level, and no longer tip not both teams to score. Win calls ran the other way: 69.5% against 66.1% expected.
Month by month
| Month | Matches | Result right | Tips | Tips right |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2026 | 76 | 64% | 42 | 67% |
| Oct 2026 | 193 | 55% | 125 | 66% |
| Sep 2026 | 128 | 50% | 68 | 76% |
| Aug 2026 | 90 | 60% | 55 | 76% |
| May 2026 | 198 | 45% | 123 | 63% |
| Apr 2026 | 199 | 53% | 123 | 66% |
| Mar 2026 | 187 | 50% | 121 | 55% |
| Feb 2026 | 195 | 53% | 121 | 67% |
| Jan 2026 | 211 | 49% | 134 | 58% |
| Dec 2025 | 162 | 50% | 97 | 59% |
| Nov 2025 | 185 | 57% | 127 | 61% |
| Oct 2025 | 147 | 53% | 89 | 65% |
| Sep 2025 | 123 | 53% | 74 | 65% |
| Aug 2025 | 80 | 50% | 48 | 69% |
The latest 40 tips in the test
| Match | Tip | Chance | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich Town v Bournemouth Premier League · 8 Nov 2026 | Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 1-2 | Won |
| Manchester United v Aston Villa Premier League · 8 Nov 2026 | Both teams to score | 61% | 4-4 | Won |
| Club Atlético de Madrid v Barcelona La Liga · 8 Nov 2026 | Both teams to score | 66% | 1-2 | Won |
| Monza v Atalanta BC Serie A · 8 Nov 2026 | Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 0-1 | Lost |
| Köln v Bayer 04 Leverkusen Bundesliga · 8 Nov 2026 | Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 1-2 | Won |
| Freiburg v Union Berlin Bundesliga · 8 Nov 2026 | Freiburg to win | 59% | 2-0 | Won |
| 1899 Hoffenheim v Schalke 04 Bundesliga · 8 Nov 2026 | Under 2.5 goals | 63% | 2-1 | Lost |
| Kaizer Chiefs v Siwelele carling-knockout · 8 Nov 2026 | Kaizer Chiefs to win | 59% | 2-1 | Won |
| Arsenal v Hull City Premier League · 7 Nov 2026 | Not both teams to score | 67% | 1-0 | Won |
| Málaga v Real Racing Club de Santander La Liga · 7 Nov 2026 | Both teams to score | 66% | 1-2 | Won |
| Valencia v Real Madrid La Liga · 7 Nov 2026 | Real Madrid to win | 63% | 0-3 | Won |
| Cagliari Calcio v Frosinone Calcio Serie A · 7 Nov 2026 | Both teams to score | 66% | 1-0 | Lost |
| Parma Calcio 1913 v Bologna 1909 Serie A · 7 Nov 2026 | Under 2.5 goals | 67% | 1-2 | Lost |
| AS Roma v Sassuolo Calcio Serie A · 7 Nov 2026 | AS Roma to win | 73% | 3-0 | Won |
| Borussia Dortmund v 07 Elversberg Bundesliga · 7 Nov 2026 | Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 2-1 | Won |
| Mainz 05 v Bayern München Bundesliga · 7 Nov 2026 | Over 2.5 goals | 77% | 1-2 | Won |
| RB Leipzig v Augsburg Bundesliga · 7 Nov 2026 | Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 5-2 | Won |
| Paderborn 07 v Eintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga · 7 Nov 2026 | Under 2.5 goals | 63% | 2-2 | Lost |
| Stuttgart v Werder Bremen Bundesliga · 7 Nov 2026 | Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 1-0 | Lost |
| Orlando Pirates v Sekhukhune United carling-knockout · 7 Nov 2026 | Orlando Pirates to win | 77% | 1-0 | Won |
| Venda FC v The Bees Motsepe Championship · 7 Nov 2026 | Under 2.5 goals | 81% | 0-0 | Won |
| Hope v Hungry Lions FC Motsepe Championship · 7 Nov 2026 | Under 2.5 goals | 86% | 1-0 | Won |
| Magesi FC v Orbit College FC Motsepe Championship · 7 Nov 2026 | Not both teams to score | 77% | 1-1 | Lost |
| Midlands Wanderers v Lerumo Lions Motsepe Championship · 7 Nov 2026 | Under 2.5 goals | 73% | 1-2 | Lost |
| North West University v Highbury Motsepe Championship · 7 Nov 2026 | Under 2.5 goals | 78% | 3-1 | Lost |
| Pretoria University FC v Gomora United Motsepe Championship · 7 Nov 2026 | Both teams to score | 65% | 2-2 | Won |
| PSV Eindhoven v Club Brugge Champions League · 4 Nov 2026 | Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 1-2 | Won |
| RB Leipzig v Manchester City Champions League · 4 Nov 2026 | Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 2-3 | Won |
| Slavia Prague v Arsenal Champions League · 4 Nov 2026 | Arsenal to win | 86% | 1-2 | Won |
| Atlético Madrid v Bayern Munich Champions League · 3 Nov 2026 | Over 2.5 goals | 78% | 0-2 | Lost |
| Barcelona v Aston Villa Champions League · 3 Nov 2026 | Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 3-0 | Won |
| Villarreal v Paris Saint-Germain Champions League · 3 Nov 2026 | Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 0-6 | Won |
| Mamelodi Sundowns v Golden Arrows carling-knockout · 3 Nov 2026 | Mamelodi Sundowns to win | 62% | 1-0 | Won |
| Atalanta BC v Parma Calcio 1913 Serie A · 2 Nov 2026 | Atalanta BC to win | 66% | 0-3 | Lost |
| Getafe v Sevilla La Liga · 1 Nov 2026 | Under 2.5 goals | 70% | 3-1 | Lost |
| Real Racing Club de Santander v Real Madrid La Liga · 1 Nov 2026 | Over 2.5 goals | 85% | 0-3 | Won |
| Como 1907 v Venezia Serie A · 1 Nov 2026 | Como 1907 to win | 77% | 1-0 | Won |
| Frosinone Calcio v Torino Serie A · 1 Nov 2026 | Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 2-0 | Lost |
| Lazio v Cagliari Calcio Serie A · 1 Nov 2026 | Lazio to win | 62% | 2-1 | Won |
| Lecce v Genoa CFC Serie A · 1 Nov 2026 | Under 2.5 goals | 68% | 1-2 | Lost |
The live log, with prices
Logging since 9 Nov 2026Graded every 15 minutes as results come in. Sure bets found since 9 Nov 2026: 76. Past results never guarantee future ones; 18+.
Soccer prediction tips and race favourites, as logged
Each soccer prediction tip and each race's favourite goes on the log inside 26 hours of the start, at the best price at a partner book then, and is graded on the final score or the official finishing order.
| Match or race | Bet | Chance | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnsley FC v Oldham Athletic EFL Trophy · Wed 11 Nov 21:00 | Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 1.43 World Sports Betting | Upcoming |
| Sheffield Wednesday v Accrington Stanley EFL Trophy · Wed 11 Nov 21:00 | Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 1.36 Betfred | Upcoming |
| Fairview race 8 Horse racing · Wed 11 Nov 16:25 | Vivo Per Lei to win | 27% | 2.90 Betfred | Upcoming |
| Fairview Aw race 8 Horse racing · Wed 11 Nov 16:25 | Vivo Per Lei to win | 27% | 2.85 World Sports Betting | Upcoming |
| Fairview race 7 Horse racing · Wed 11 Nov 15:50 | Say A Prayer to win | 29% | 2.60 TopBet | Upcoming |
| Fairview Aw race 7 Horse racing · Wed 11 Nov 15:50 | Say A Prayer to win | 29% | 2.65 World Sports Betting | Upcoming |
| Fairview Aw race 6 Horse racing · Wed 11 Nov 15:10 | Diamond Maker to win | 18% | 4.40 World Sports Betting | Upcoming |
| Fairview race 5 Horse racing · Wed 11 Nov 14:35 | Pretty Awesome to win | 26% | 3.00 TopBet | Upcoming |
| Fairview Aw race 5 Horse racing · Wed 11 Nov 14:35 | Pretty Awesome to win | 27% | 3.00 World Sports Betting | Upcoming |
| Vietnam v Chinese Taipei International friendlies · Wed 11 Nov 14:00 | Both teams to score | 60% | 1.87 Betfred | Upcoming |
| Fairview Aw race 4 Horse racing · Wed 11 Nov 14:00 | Kleinzee to win | 56% | 1.40 World Sports Betting | Upcoming |
| Fairview Aw race 3 Horse racing · Wed 11 Nov 13:25 | Scott's Bar to win | 29% | 2.75 World Sports Betting | Upcoming |
| Fairview race 2 Horse racing · Wed 11 Nov 12:50 | Joker Man to win | 24% | 3.20 TopBet | Upcoming |
| Fairview Aw race 2 Horse racing · Wed 11 Nov 12:50 | Joker Man to win | 24% | 3.20 World Sports Betting | Upcoming |
| Fairview Polytrack race 1 Horse racing · Wed 11 Nov 12:15 | El Cohete to win | 41% | 1.90 TopBet | Upcoming |
| Fairview Aw race 1 Horse racing · Wed 11 Nov 12:15 | El Cohete to win | 44% | 1.80 World Sports Betting | Upcoming |
| Bradford City FC v York City FC EFL Trophy · Tue 10 Nov 21:30 | Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 1.49 Betfred | Upcoming |
| BROMLEY v MK DONS EFL Trophy · Tue 10 Nov 21:30 | MK DONS to win | 56% | 1.70 Hollywoodbets | Upcoming |
| Barnet v Leyton Orient EFL Trophy · Tue 10 Nov 21:00 | Both teams to score | 63% | 1.40 World Sports Betting | Upcoming |
| Bristol Rovers v Reading FC EFL Trophy · Tue 10 Nov 21:00 | Both teams to score | 63% | 1.48 Easybet | Upcoming |
| CF Trival Valderas Alcoron v CD Leganes Copa del Rey · Tue 10 Nov 21:00 | Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 1.51 TopBet | Upcoming |
| Stockport County FC v Tranmere Rovers FC EFL Trophy · Tue 10 Nov 21:00 | Stockport County FC to win | 72% | 1.36 World Sports Betting | Upcoming |
| Barnet FC v Leyton Orient London EFL Trophy · Tue 10 Nov 21:00 | Both teams to score | 68% | 1.38 Easybet | Upcoming |
| Leicester City v Walsall FC EFL Trophy · Tue 10 Nov 21:00 | Leicester City to win | 74% | 1.33 World Sports Betting | Upcoming |
| Burton Albion v Notts County EFL Trophy · Tue 10 Nov 21:00 | Both teams to score | 61% | 1.57 World Sports Betting | Upcoming |
| Oxford United v Cheltenham Town EFL Trophy · Tue 10 Nov 21:00 | Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 1.40 World Sports Betting | Upcoming |
| Mansfield Town v Chesterfield FC EFL Trophy · Tue 10 Nov 21:00 | Both teams to score | 63% | 1.49 World Sports Betting | Upcoming |
| Plymouth Argyle v Swindon Town EFL Trophy · Tue 10 Nov 21:00 | Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 1.38 World Sports Betting | Upcoming |
| Plymouth v Swindon EFL Trophy · Tue 10 Nov 21:00 | Plymouth to win | 69% | 1.43 World Sports Betting | Upcoming |
| CD Pamplona v SD Eibar Copa del Rey · Tue 10 Nov 20:00 | Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 1.54 TopBet | Awaiting result |
| Kenilworth race 9 Horse racing · Tue 10 Nov 17:15 | Major Apollo to win | 24% | 3.30 World Sports Betting | Awaiting result |
| Kenilworth race 8 Horse racing · Tue 10 Nov 16:40 | Margate to win | 27% | 3.00 World Sports Betting | Awaiting result |
| Kenilworth race 7 Horse racing · Tue 10 Nov 16:05 | Grapes Of Wrath to win | 27% | 2.65 Betfred | Awaiting result |
| Kenilworth race 6 Horse racing · Tue 10 Nov 15:30 | Money Extractor to win | 20% | 4.20 Betfred | Awaiting result |
| Kenilworth race 5 Horse racing · Tue 10 Nov 14:55 | Le Soleil to win | 42% | 1.90 World Sports Betting | Awaiting result |
| Kenilworth race 4 Horse racing · Tue 10 Nov 14:20 | Above The Law to win | 35% | 2.25 World Sports Betting | Awaiting result |
| Kenilworth race 3 Horse racing · Tue 10 Nov 13:45 | RED HOT RIFLE to win | 34% | 2.40 World Sports Betting | Awaiting result |
| Kenilworth race 2 Horse racing · Tue 10 Nov 13:07 | West Monroe to win | 26% | 3.05 World Sports Betting | Awaiting result |
| Kenilworth race 1 Horse racing · Tue 10 Nov 12:37 | Peach Cobbler to win | 28% | 2.90 Betfred | Awaiting result |
| Club Aurora v FC Universitario de Vinto Bolivia Primera · Tue 10 Nov 02:30 | Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 1.56 Easybet | Awaiting result |
Every free tip, logged before kick-off
The time each tip went on the log is printed beside it. Prices are the best at a licensed South African book at that moment.
No free tip is on the log yet: tips go on it the day before their matches, with the time stamped. The next 10 tips, for Thu 12 Nov, go on it on Wed 11 Nov. See them now.
Value bets, shown after kick-off
A value bet is a licensed SA price above the sharp market's fair price. Pro members see them before kick-off; this log shows each one once its match has started.
| Match | Bet | Price | Fair | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid v Paris FC Champions League (women) · Tue 10 Nov | Paris FC to win | 6.00 Hollywoodbets | 5.59 | +7.4% | Open |
| Plymouth Parkway v Berkhamsted FC FA Cup · Mon 9 Nov | Plymouth Parkway to win | 2.05 TopBet | 1.94 | +5.9% | Won 2-1 |
| FC Botosani v ASC Otelul Galati Romania Liga 1 · Mon 9 Nov | ASC Otelul Galati to win | 3.70 Mzansibet | 3.59 | +3.1% | Open |
| Hvidovre IF v Aarhus Fremad Denmark Division 1 · Mon 9 Nov | Hvidovre IF to win | 1.78 Mzansibet | 1.73 | +3.2% | Open |
| Ironi Modiin v Hapoel Acre FC Israel Ligat Leumit · Mon 9 Nov | Ironi Modiin to win | 2.10 10bet | 2.02 | +4.2% | Open |
| FC Kafr Qasim v Hapoel Afula FC Israel Ligat Leumit · Mon 9 Nov | Hapoel Afula FC to win | 2.95 10bet | 2.73 | +8.2% | Open |
| Coventry City U21 v Queens Park Rangers U21 Professional Development League U21 · Mon 9 Nov | Queens Park Rangers U21 to win | 3.95 Easybet | 3.32 | +19.0% | Open |
Tested before we published a tip
Every match since 1 Aug 2025, 2 174 in all, predicted only from the results before it. The bar is how often the call came in; the line is the confidence it was called at.
- Win, called at 55% or more69% of 699
- Win, called at 60% or more74% of 484
- Win, called at 65% or more79% of 300
- Over 2.5 goals, 65% or more68% of 268
- Under 2.5 goals, 65% or more62% of 320
- Both teams to score, 60% or more61% of 397
- Not both to score, 65% or more60% of 169
The model's top pick was right in 52% of all 2 174 matches, draws included. Its most likely correct score came in 13% of the time, and one of its top three 33%. A test on past matches is not a live record; the log above is.
UK49s: our picks against pure chance
UK49s is a random draw. Every past draw is re-picked from the draws before it, and the picks score close to chance, as any rule must.
| Draw | Draws scored | Numbers hit a draw | By chance | Banker landed | By chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brunchtime | 186 | 0.70 | 0.73 | 15% | 12% |
| Lunchtime | 2 658 | 0.72 | 0.73 | 11% | 12% |
| Drivetime | 187 | 0.69 | 0.73 | 10% | 12% |
| Teatime | 2 815 | 0.74 | 0.73 | 13% | 12% |
How we grade
- A tip goes on the log the day before its match, with the time stamped, and is never edited.
- Football is graded on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A tip with no result after six days is void.
- Returns use R100 on every tip at the best licensed SA price shown when it was posted; a tip with no SA price counts in the hit rate only.
- Value bets are graded the same way and also against Pinnacle's fair price at kick-off, the closing line.
The method behind the picks is on how Punts works.
Free tips in your inbox at 06:00
Every morning: the model’s strongest calls, the UK49s numbers for all four draws, yesterday’s results and one free value bet. One email a day; unsubscribe in one tap.
Our record: questions
How accurate are Punts soccer predictions?
Live, the log on this page answers that: logging started on 9 Nov 2026 and grading begins with the first finished match. Tested on 2 174 past matches since 1 Aug 2025, teams the model gave 65% or more won 79% of the time.
Do you delete losing tips?
No. Every tip is written to the log before kick-off with the time it was posted, and nothing is edited after the match. A tip whose result never arrives is marked void after six days, never removed.
Can soccer predictions be 100% accurate?
No. A 65% call loses about one match in three, and no model, tipster or site wins every time. Any site that promises sure or 100% accurate predictions is selling something its record will not show.
What does return per R100 mean?
What R100 on every graded tip would have made or lost at the best licensed South African price we showed when the tip was posted. Tips with no SA price are graded but left out of the return.
What is closing line value?
Whether the price we posted beat the sharp market's fair price just before kick-off. Beating the close more often than not is the clearest sign a bet had value, whatever the result.